EU MSR Reform Proposal: Carbon Price Hits 7-Week High at €74.8/tonne

TrustVal Team  |  22 April 2026

The European Commission proposed a targeted Market Stability Reserve amendment on 1 April 2026, halting the automatic permit cancellation mechanism. EU carbon prices responded with a 7-week high of €74.80/tonne — markets pricing in reduced supply-side risk.

The proposed amendment to the Market Stability Reserve (MSR) Decision would halt the cancellation mechanism that currently voids permits above the reserve threshold. Instead, those allowances would be retained as a market buffer — a change the market interpreted as a measured, non-interventionist signal from the Commission. The proposal avoids aggressive supply reduction, which had been a concern for carbon-intensive industrial sectors facing high compliance costs.

Market Reaction: €74.80/tonne — 7-Week Peak

EU carbon allowance prices rose to €74.80 per tonne following the announcement — the highest level in seven weeks. The price trajectory reflects a market that has been holding above €70/tonne through April 2026, a floor that supports long-term investment in decarbonisation technology. Analysts note that EU ETS prices are expected to reach €126/tonne by 2030 under current policy trajectories.

CBAM: First Certificate Price Locked at €75.36/tCO₂e

Separately, on 7 April 2026, the European Commission published the first official CBAM certificate price for Q1 2026 at €75.36 per tonne of CO₂ equivalent — calculated from the average EU ETS auction closing price across January through March 2026. The CBAM's definitive phase is now fully operational for steel, aluminium, cement, hydrogen, fertilisers, and electricity imports into the EU. Importers must purchase certificates from February 2027 (covering 2026 imports), but prices are published quarterly in advance for market transparency.

Next quarterly prices: 6 July 2026, 5 October 2026, 4 January 2027. From 2027, prices will publish weekly.

TrustVal Perspective

EU ETS prices above €70/tonne fundamentally change the calculus for industrial decarbonisation. At this level, high-quality MRV infrastructure — particularly for emission reduction projects that generate compliance-grade credits — becomes a strategic asset, not a compliance checkbox. Companies operating in CBAM-affected sectors need verified emissions data that will withstand EU regulatory scrutiny.