Article 6.4's First Credits Are Coming — What Project Developers Need to Know

The UN's new centralized carbon crediting mechanism under Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement is about to produce its first credits. Originally expected by mid-2025, the timeline slipped to early 2026, but the pipeline is real: over 1,000 projects are queued to transition from the Clean Development Mechanism, and the regulatory architecture is finally in place to start issuing.

For project developers, this isn't just a technical milestone. It's a structural shift in how carbon credits are valued, traded, and used for compliance. And the choices you make now about which pathway to pursue—6.2 bilateral, 6.4 centralized, or voluntary market—will define your revenue model for the next decade.

6.2 vs. 6.4: Two Roads, Different Economics

Article 6.2 is the bilateral track. Countries negotiate one-on-one, set their own rules within the Paris framework, and trade ITMOs (Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes) directly. Switzerland has been the most aggressive buyer here, with KliK Foundation building a pipeline of 20 million ITMOs at roughly $40 per tonne. As of early 2026, 108 bilateral agreements exist between 64 countries, though only one full ITMO transfer has been completed—1,916 units from Thailand to Switzerland in January 2024.

Article 6.4 is the centralized UN mechanism. Think of it as the successor to the CDM, but with tighter additionality requirements, mandatory corresponding adjustments, and a supervisory body setting the rules. The first credits haven't issued yet, but the framework is operational and the CDM transition pipeline is moving.

For developers, the key difference is control vs. simplicity. Under 6.2, you negotiate through bilateral channels—slower, more complex, but potentially higher prices because sovereign buyers are paying a premium for corresponding adjustments. Under 6.4, the process is standardized and the UN supervises, which should reduce transaction costs but means you're competing in a larger pool.

The Corresponding Adjustment Premium

Here's the number that matters: KliK Foundation is paying approximately $40/tonne for ITMOs with corresponding adjustments, while spot voluntary carbon market prices hover around $10-15. That's a 2-3x premium for what amounts to a government-backed guarantee that the emission reduction won't be double-counted.

For project developers sitting on voluntary market credits, the question is whether to pursue authorization and corresponding adjustment under Article 6.2 or wait for the Article 6.4 mechanism to mature. Both paths add value, but 6.2 requires navigating host country DNA (Designated National Authority) capacity, which varies enormously. Thailand's DNA has processed transfers. Many others haven't.

The Digital Infrastructure Gap

A new joint venture is building digital systems for tracking, reporting, and transferring ITMOs—targeting a $100 billion mitigation pipeline. The focus is on nature-based ITMOs, but the real story is infrastructure: without interoperable registries that national systems can plug into, Article 6 stays a collection of bilateral deals rather than a functioning market.

The UNDP is running a parallel track, with a Request for Expressions of Interest already out for private sector organizations to supply ITMOs under Article 6.2, initially focused on Peru and Senegal. A broader Call for Proposals launches later this year. This is the operationalization phase—the rules are set, now the deals need to happen.

Digital MRV plays a critical role here. When you're talking about cross-border transfers of mitigation outcomes, the monitoring data needs to be auditable, continuous, and machine-readable. Manual MRV processes that work for voluntary market verification struggle at the scale and rigor that sovereign buyers require. The Gold Standard dMRV pilot running through October 2026 is setting the benchmark for what digital-first verification looks like in practice.

What to Do Now

If you're a CDM project developer, the Article 6.4 transition pathway is your most direct route. The supervisory body is operational, and being in the first wave of 6.4 credit issuance carries a signaling benefit that later entrants won't have.

If you're developing new projects in Switzerland's bilateral partner countries (Peru, Ghana, Senegal, Georgia, Vanuatu, Dominica, Thailand, Ukraine, Morocco, Malawi, Uruguay, Chile, Tunisia), the Article 6.2 bilateral track offers premium pricing but requires navigating host country authorization frameworks. Thailand's template is the one to study.

And regardless of pathway, invest in your monitoring infrastructure now. The quality bar is going up across all channels—CCP labels, corresponding adjustments, CORSIA eligibility—and digital MRV is becoming table stakes, not a differentiator.